 # Bayesian Theory In Betting

## Bayesian Approach

The Bayesian approach to probability has been around for centuries and has been used in a variety of fields. Its most common application is in the field of statistics, where it is used to calculate the likelihood of an event occurring. In recent years, Bayesian theory has begun to be applied to the world of sports betting, with some success.

## The Bayesian Theory

The bayesian theory relies on the idea of conditional probability. This is the idea that the probability of an event occurring can be changed depending on what else is known about the situation. For example, if you know that a particular team always wins when playing at home, the probability that they will win when playing away would be lower.

### Sports Betting

In sports betting, Bayesian theory can be used to calculate the probability of a team winning, based on the odds offered by the bookmaker. For example, if Manchester United are playing against Wigan Athletic, and the odds offered by the bookmaker are 3/1 for Man United to win, the Bayesian approach would calculate the probability of Man United winning like 25%. This is because, given the information available, there is a 25% chance that Man Utd will win the game.

## Advantages of the Bayesian Approach

• The Bayesian approach has a number of advantages over other methods of betting. These include:
• It takes into account all of the relevant information, including past results and current form.
• It is not influenced by emotion or sentiment.
• It is not biased towards any particular team or player.

## How to Use Bayesian Theory In Betting

There are a number of steps that you can take to use Bayesian theory in betting:

• Calculate the probability of each outcome occurring, based on the information available.
• Compare the probabilities and choose the most likely outcome.